Analyzing Jacob deGrom's 2015 Season

Jacob deGrom

If there was another pitcher on the team who is overshadowing Matt Harvey - and he is - this season, it would have to be Jacob deGrom. The reigning NL Rookie of the Year has only gotten better in his sophomore campaign, going 8-5 with a 2.15 ERA and racking up 100 strikeouts. He has proven himself as the ace, increased his velocity and added more control. The right-hander is classy, notably recognized for his hair and frequently characterized by the hashtag #deGrominant after throwing a gem against another all-star lineup. Since getting shelled by Kris Bryant and the Chicago Cubs in May, deGrom has absolutely dominated, allowing just eight earned runs over his last eight starts to go with 63 strikeouts (this includes a masterful performance against a St. Louis offense in which he struck out 11 Cardinals and allowed just one hit; as well as throwing eight scoreless innings against Milwaukee, allowing four hits and striking out seven batters on 100 pitchers). Certainly, deGrom has put himself into Cy Young consideration, and it would be shocking if he were not to make the All-Star Game. The only pitchers who have arguably had more successful seasons are Max Scherzer and Zack Grienke. DeGrom is pitching as well as anyone in the league right now. No one, with the exception of Scherzer - who is pitching at a superhuman level right now - has thrown as well as deGrom over the last month-and-a-half. And he’s doing it with a suspect defense.

WHAT HE THROWS:

Four-seam fastball: 95.65 mph, 48.38 percent usage, -4.90 inches horizontal movement, 9.37 inches vertical movement

DeGrom has used his four-seam more than last season, an increase of almost four percent, and the 27-year-old has only gotten better with it. His velocity has increased from 94.49 mph last season, and he’s throwing it with more confidence this season. Batters are hitting just .156 against it, but have hit five home runs out of the 717 four-seam fastballs he’s thrown, versus just four last year on 992 four-seamers. Still, the pitch is obviously successful and deGrom continues to show improvement - after all, he hasn’t been pitching for very long.

Slider: 90.32 mph, 19.16 percent usage, 0.48 inches horizontal movement, 4.86 inches vertical movement

The right-hander has also relied slightly more on his slider, which is both good and bad. Last year, it became noticeably evident that deGrom relied on his fastball (as he should) when runners weren’t in scoring position, but when there were, he tended to use his slider quite a bit. However, it has been more effective this season, regardless of when he uses it, as opponents are hitting it at a .236 clip compared to .274 last year.

Sinker: 95.3 mph, 13.7 percent usage, -8.20 inches horizontal movement, 6.78 inches vertical movement

DeGrom’s sinker has terrific down action, and it was certainly effective last year. This year: not as much. It’s become - by far - deGrom’s least successful pitch, and batters he’s faced and thrown it to are responding with a .309 average. However, it has created more swings-and-misses, going from a 6.91 whiff rate to 9.36. He hasn’t been using it nearly as much as last season, which might be for the better, but when deGrom does have good control of it, like he did against the Cardinals earlier this year and in other starts this year, it can be an incredibly dangerous pitch.

Curve: 82.76 mph, 9.78 percent usage, 3.84 inches horizontal movement, -1.61 inches vertical movement

The curveball was only learned by deGrom a couple of years ago, when pitching coach Ron Romanick asked him if he “threw a bender” toward the end of 2013 and taught deGrom after he said no (remember, deGrom played shortstop until his later years in college). For the most part, deGrom has thrown it at a similar rate and seen similar results. Seeing as it’s still a semi-new pitch, he hasn’t necessarily thrown it with confidence too often, which is fine - he’s still learning and it will likely develop with time.

Changeup: 85.92 mph, 8.97 percent usage, -7.13 inches horizontal movement, 4.17 inches vertical movement

Although this is deGrom’s least popular pitch, it has created the highest swing rate out of his repertoire. He’s also induced a whiff rate of more than 22 percent and batters are only hitting .214 against it, which statistically makes it his second-best pitch. When deGrom struggles to get his pitches down in the zone, similar to Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard, he can adjust and rely a little more on his changeup. The results have been magnificent this season.

Steven Matz's arrival, and why the Mets still need to be worried

OK, let’s be clear: by no means does this make the Mets immune to their previous concerns. They are not a powerhouse offensive team, they do not have an all-star defense and they still have a shortage of talent across the field.

But it’s a start.

Steven Matz was called up last week and made his MLB debut yesterday, going 7 ⅔ innings and allowing five hits, two runs, three walks and striking out six. Matz flashed a 96-mph fastball and countered with a sweeping curveball that devastated Reds hitters all game. After allowing a solo shot to Brandon Phillips (also known as Mets killer; he has hit safely in each of the 32 games the teams have played), Matz settled down and dominated a very good Cincinnati lineup. The most notable moment appeared to be the end of the top of the seventh, when Matz struck out Joey Votto and fans thought he was done for the day.

That is, until he came back out for the eighth, quickly got two outs and was replaced by Carlos Torres after a two-out walk. He threw 110 pitches, which was nine more than his previous season-high, and left to a standing ovation from a Mets crowd that he was part of as a child - he grew up just 50 miles away in Stony Brook, Long Island.

More notable, however, was Matz’s day at the plate, a 3-for-3 performance that kicked off with a two-run double and culminated with a liner over Phillips’ head that drove another two runs in. Matz was batting .304 in Triple-A, but no one expected that.

“I love hitting,” he said after the game. “I don’t like to be an easy out up there as a pitcher.”

Matz comes as a highly-regarded prospect, a 24-year-old who was drafted with the 72nd overall pick in 2009 and spent three years until coming back from Tommy John surgery. He swiftly moved through the farm system and dominated Triple-A this year in a hitter-friendly league, posting a league-high 2.19 ERA and striking out 94 batters in just over 90 innings. Las Vegas manager Wally Backman allegedly told Terry Collins that Matz was bored in Triple-A.

None of this matters now, of course, as Matz is simply the final piece in what should be arguably the best rotation in baseball. He joins Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard and Zack Wheeler (who will return next summer) as a five-headed monster full of young guns. For the next two seasons, at least, until Harvey becomes a free agent, the Mets might even have the potential to produce one of the best starting rotations in history.

However, there are still glaring concerns, starting with the fact that despite scoring seven runs in Matz’s debut, the Mets scored just 15 in their previous 10 games, and four of the seven runs they scored were driven in by their starting pitcher. They’re expecting Daniel Murphy back against the Cubs on Tuesday, but there are still huge concerns - Lucas Duda and Michael Cuddyer have fallen off a cliff, Ruben Tejada and Wilmer Flores are inconsistent as ever and Juan Lagares and Kevin Plawecki aren’t producing, either.

There is small comfort in the fact that Curtis Granderson is having his best stretch as a member of the Mets, slugging five home runs in his last eight games and batting well over .400 during that stretch (an eight-game hitting streak included). However, the rest of the lineup remains a concern, and Granderson’s hot streak should not excuse his below-average defense that has cost the Mets in games.

But for now, the Mets are three games over .500 and just three games behind the Nationals for the division lead. They do, however, have a brutal stretch coming up and need to provide this star-studded pitching cast some runs. We’ll see how things turn out.

Mets to call up Steven Matz, but that's the least of their worries

The Mets are heavily hinting at calling up top pitching prospect Steven Matz by the end of June. Matz, 24, has posted a 7-4 record at AAA Las Vegas and leads the Pacific Coast League with a 2.11 ERA. He also has 86 strikeouts in 85.1 innings this season.

The call-up is imminent, but it may not be at the top of the Mets’ concerns right now. The rotation, especially Jacob deGrom and Matt Harvey, has performed admirably over their past several starts. Harvey has allowed just one earned run in his previous two starts and deGrom has allowed three. Somehow, both received losses against Atlanta last weekend after allowing a combined total of three earned runs.

Although Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon are not necessarily performing up to standards this season, Colon has nine wins and Niese has pitched well enough as of late for the Mets to win games. It seems more likely that Niese will move to the bullpen in a long relief role following Matz’s promotion, but dropping Colon might prove more effective to add another lefty in the mix. Niese has arguably been more effective recently and has a lower ERA (though both have ERAs higher than 4).

The greater concerns right now are obviously the offense and defense. The Mets have scored just six runs over the course of their five-game losing skid, and against fairly mediocre starting pitching (Atlanta and Toronto have notably weak rotations and bullpens). The Mets currently trail Washington by just 1.5 games, but after getting swept by the Braves over the weekend, are just half a game ahead of third place.

It’s time for a change, and it has to happen fast unless the Mets want to fall out of playoff contention early. It’s been nine years since the franchise made a playoff appearance, and they’ve had just one in the last 15 years. It’ll help to get Daniel Murphy back from the DL this week, but it won’t be enough. Sandy Alderson and Terry Collins have both mentioned that the minor league prospects aren’t quite ready for the big leagues yet, but they haven’t ruled out any options for trades.

They open against Milwaukee this Tuesday with Niese on the mound, but there’s no telling how successful they will be, even against of team of the Brewers’ low caliber. Matz is good, and he deserves a shot at the next level, but it’s not necessarily what the team should be focusing on right now.

The 2015 Mets, and an analysis of their season

The 2015 New York Mets currently sit at a modest 36-32, good enough for tops in the National League East with a game-and-a-half to spare over the Washington Nationals. This is somewhat of a surprise - for the most part, analysts had the Nats pegged as title favorites and the Marlins as playoff contenders; these are likely testaments to the offseason acquisitions that the former made and the gargantuan contract that Miami gave Giancarlo Stanton over the summer.

There was a sense of immediacy in D.C., made evident by the 7-year, $210 million contract they gave to Max Scherzer and the expectations for Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon and Stephen Strasburg for the upcoming season. The Marlins, on the other hand, extended Christian Yelich’s contract and looked forward to the return of bonafide ace Jose Fernandez. Both teams looked ready, although the bottom of the division was rounded out by the lowly Phillies and mediocre Braves.

Then, there’s the hapless Mets, the franchise with just one playoff appearance over the last 15 years and six straight losing seasons. A 4-year, $60 million deal with Curtis Granderson seemed to backfire two years ago, as do most contracts with aging veterans, and with Zack Wheeler gone for the 2015 season with a torn UCL and no real upgrades in the field, predictions sat the Mets in third place. Surely, trading a first-round pick for a 36-year-old Michael Cuddyer - a below-average defensive outfielder who hasn’t played 130 games in a season since 2011 - wouldn’t give the offensive boost that the Mets so desperately needed. Even a return from Batman, or Matt Harvey, the team’s shining knight in armor who was a lone bright spot during the 2013 season before falling victim to Tommy John surgery, would not be enough to solidify any form of improvement over the season.

So, why are the Mets even in first place two-and-a-half months into the season? Their rotation, for one, has been solid, but still lacks consistency. Two of the current members have been starting pitchers for nine-plus years, and one of them is 42 years old (see: Bartolo Colon). Colon, albeit loveable and terrific in spurts, is 5’11” and 285 pounds (a seemingly generous number) and throws fastballs at a rate of 87 percent. After an April in which he went 4-1 with a 3.31 ERA and a K/BB ratio of 25-1, he’s declined dramatically in terms of efficiency, with his ERA rising to 4.81. The other half of the “rough” part of the rotation is Jon Niese, a 28-year-old lefty who is mostly recognized for producing ground balls and a low 90s fastball. In similar fashion as Colon, Niese fell off of a cliff following an extremely productive April (sporting a 1.95 ERA) and had a disastrous stretch in which he lost several decisions and fans called for a trade.

On the bright side, Niese and Colon can be overlooked, or at least for now. Harvey’s 2015 comeback has been mostly what was expected, although he hasn’t been his usual consistent self. He has shown spurts of dominance behind a 97 MPH fastball (increased velocity following TJ surgery) and for the most part has been effective. Despite two starts in which he allowed seven earned runs each, Harvey seems to be back on track after a dominant outing against Toronto and stands with a line of 7-4 with a 3.32 ERA and 88 strikeouts. Jacob deGrom, reigning NL ROY, has only gotten better in the ever-dreaded sophomore campaign, increasing his velocity on every pitch by almost one MPH and has been simply dominant over his last three starts. (21 innings, four earned runs and 28 strikeouts.) With Harvey’s temporary struggles, the 27-year-old has blossomed into the team’s ace. He is a likely All-Star and has lived up to the hype of being #deGrominant, a hashtag coined by fans.

The third peg of the trio, which, by the way, far surpasses even the highest point of success of Generation K, is Noah Syndergaard, who almost seems half-man, half-superhero - he’s been given the nickname Thor, and for good reason: he stands at 6’6” and 240 pounds, fires a 99-MPH fastball and possesses a devastating curveball. There have been growing pains, naturally, but also streaks of brilliance - in his most recent start, against a hot Toronto offense coming into Citi Field on an 11-game win streak, Syndergaard let up just two hits, and after a rough first inning in which he threw 32 pitches, he left the game after the sixth inning with 11 strikeouts and one earned run. He’s also just 22 years old, which leaves hope for the franchise. Some are even touting the three young pitchers as the next Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz, although this is likely just the result of an overexcited fan base.

Waiting in the wings is Steven Matz, a lefty pitching prospect who’s been just behind Syndergaard in terms of development and is currently dominating AAA ball. The 24-year-old Long Island native was a second-round pick and fans are already calling for his promotion - he leads the Pacific Coast League in ERA and strikeouts. Sandy Alderson has hinted at a July call-up, which only pumps up Mets fans more.

The offense and position players, however, remain a major concern. David Wright’s battle with spinal stenosis has been a huge blow, and the Mets have gone all but eight games without him, as well as a majority of the season without catcher Travis d’Arnaud and lefty specialist Jerry Blevins. The outfield, with the exception of the electric Juan Lagares, is aging and suspect, although Cuddyer has certainly provided some upgraded offense and Granderson has gotten on base at a slightly more consistent rate. (.248/.359/.403.) He’s not anywhere near as dangerous as he was in Detroit or with the Yankees, but it’s an improvement over last season. Both players’ arms, however, remain mediocre at best and sacrifice flies are sacrificed a bit more than necessary. On the bright side, Darrell Ceciliani has provided a bright spot, as the young call-up was 10 for his first 25 in June. It’s a small sample size, but he’s showed promise and manager Terry Collins has been willing to give him more playing time as a result.

The infield is of greater concern. The injuries to Wright have put Collins in a tough spot, but even coming into the season, there were already major question marks. Wilmer Flores, who was once a top 100 prospect, has improved greatly defensively, but still botches routine plays and lacks the range and ability to ever become an elite shortstop. His offense, albeit powerful for a shortstop, is not necessarily impressive, either - he’s struggling to stay above .250 - but he is tied for the team lead in homers with 10. All of this, of course, is irrelevant if Flores continues to struggle defensively. He currently leads the team with ten errors, and that’s not including hard-hit balls that have been marked as hits. He will never be Jose Reyes, which is understandable, but the Mets can’t expect to have a successful middle infield as long as he’s the starting shortstop, regardless of his continued defensive improvement. His ceiling simply isn’t high enough.

With Daniel Murphy out with a quadriceps strain, second baseman Dilson Herrera, the Columbian prospect who stands at just 5’10” and 150, has been given more playing time. He’s raw, but there have certainly been signs of major potential - he has always been able to hit, and sometimes for power, too. He had five dingers in his first 32 games and has provided some flashy defensive plays, though this should be discounted by his tendency to fudge routine double plays. He is just 21, though, and will likely be a big part of the team’s future. Murphy, who will return next Tuesday, has overcome a slow start and was batting .283 before he went to the 15-day DL. He provides a stable bat, but perhaps not a reliable glove - he’s made five errors this year at second and will probably be shifted to the hot corner in order to develop Herrera. He also isn’t expected to stay with the Mets beyond this season.

With Wright out until at least the All-Star Break and Murphy dealing with his own injury, the (almost) resurrection of Ruben Tejada has taken place. He remains liable defensively, but has been productive offensively, hitting as high as .311 at one point - he’s batting .264 now, however, with just one home run and 12 RBIs in semi-limited plate appearances. Tejada, too, has a history of defensive struggles, but he’s been slightly more consistent his year. Still, he’s not a long-term solution, and going forward, Wright really can’t be considered one anyway. He’s already 31, and spinal stenosis will likely hinder him for the rest of his career. That being said, he’s already declined in production and it’s natural to expect other injuries regardless.

Other than Herrera, another (and young) promising Mets infielder is Lucas Duda, who is coming off of a 30-homer campaign and has been inconsistent, but mostly productive. As of now, he’s sitting at .276/.380/.491 with 10 homers and 30 RBI, and has developed into a confident hitter with less swings on pitches outside of the strike zone. Given his growth over the past several years, it wouldn’t be considered all that unlikely for Duda to eventually develop into a .280 hitter with 30 homers and 100 RBI a season. He’s not far off track for that now, and he’s still 29. The prime years of his career are likely still ahead of him. As for his defense, Duda isn’t necessarily Mark Teixeira, but he is a quality first baseman who will be more than serviceable at the position. He’s one of the most pleasant surprises for the offense this season and has remained a staple in the middle of the order.

Travis d’Arnaud rounds out the lineup, but he’s been gone for most of the season. It should be recognized that the R.A. Dickey trade in 2012 was one of the best results for the franchise, netting both Syndergaard and d’Arnaud as well as snatching Wuilmer Becerra, a young prospect who has developed tremendously in the minor system. Despite a broken pinky suffered in April, d’Arnaud has remained one of the best hitters on the team. He was batting .317 before he left, and returned last week with hits in his first four games. He did struggle during his stint last year, but a trip down to AAA seemed to take care of any lingering concerns. He has certainly arrived and will likely be the Mets’ starting catcher for quite some time. And even if he’s not, Kevin Plawecki, the catching prospect who started in d’Arnaud’s absence, will be there to replace him. Although Plawecki didn’t have much success at the plate (.212/.262/.310), he’s young, talented defensively and he rarely strikes out. After some time to develop, and barring more issues with the vertigo he’s battled as of late, there is serious promise for him to grow into an elite catcher in the league.

Other than the defense, the main issue for the Mets has been the bullpen. Even though they remain among the league leaders in ERA, that’s not saying much - the starters are good enough to last six to seven innings and that number has been steadily declining due to a number of reasons. Firstly, the bullpen has been absolutely decimated by injuries. Bobby Parnell was already coming off of TJ surgery and just returned a couple of weeks ago, Josh Edgin was lost for the season in spring training, Vic Black has been on the DL all season, Jerry Blevins broke his forearm and won’t be back until at least August, Erik Goeddel just landed on the 15-day DL and Jenrry Meija was lost to an 80-game suspension due to Stanozolol.

The bullpen’s ERA currently sits at 3.01, but will likely increase in the ensuing weeks due to the recent injuries and the reoccurrence of extra-inning games. All injuries and suspensions aside, there have been multiple sides to the Mets bullpen that have been successful this season. In light of Meija’s suspension, Jeurys Familia has come out of nowhere this season to register 19 saves in 21 chances, posting a 1.44 ERA and undoubtedly bringing himself into All-Star consideration. Sean Gilmartin, a Rule 5 exception, has been outstanding this season, and Parnell has looked promising in his return so far as he continues to recover. Carlos and Alex Torres have been regressing, however, and the Mets still lack a consistent righty in the bullpen to provide innings of middle relief.

So how does the team get better? Certainly, they’re in a good place, or at least better than expected this preseason. The Mets have a successful farm system and have done a good job developing talent since Alderson took over for Omar Minaya in 2011. And as long as they have a top-tier rotation, they’ll remain decently competitive. It’s an added plus that injuries have plagued the Nationals, and even with a healthy lineup, they’ve struggled to match expectations; the Marlins have thoroughly underperformed this year and are a sub-.500 team and the Braves and Phillies are in similar situations. While this does give the Mets a better chance to win the division and make the playoffs, it’s not imprudent to assume that they won’t last without a presence of consistent bats or fielding.

The trade deadline is July 31, meaning that Alderson and the Mets front office have just over a month to make a move. The most reasonable option at this point in time would be to acquire a utility infielder, preferably one who can comfortably play third base and shift between the two middle infield positions. Someone like Ben Zobrist (.242/.326/.419) would be ideal, although the Mets would likely have to shift a prospect in order to acquire him. Other options: Aramis Ramirez (.210/.248/.379), who has not swung the bat particularly well and is far from a premier infielder; Jean Segura (.270/.300/.373), the Brewers’ young shortstop; or take the route of development and call up someone like Matt Reynolds (.287/.340/.400 in Las Vegas). Another necessity is a righty in the bullpen, someone who Collins is able to consistently rely on. There is a shortage of relievers in the farm system, and the Mets could benefit greatly from having someone who they can consistently rely on until Familia comes on in the ninth. Meija returns July 7, but there’s no guarantee that he’ll be in midseason form when he comes back. It’d probably be beneficial for the Mets to make moves via trade rather than risk the development of someone like Reynolds or the promise of Meija. A makeshift bullpen can never stay successful for long periods of time.

As for the next three months, the Mets will likely be fine. Harvey seems to be motivated to prove his stardom after those two shaky starts, Syndergaard simply has too much promise and deGrom is deGrom. Alderson has hinted heavily at Steven Matz getting called up as early as July 1, and depending on who’s more reliable, it seems fair to assume that either Niese or Colon will sit.

The Mets are lucky to be in first place now, and that likely won’t last long with the Nationals on their heels and the Marlins due for a surge. If they fall out of the division lead, it’s hard to imagine the Mets finishing ahead of the Cubs, Pirates or Giants/Dodgers to claim a Wild Card spot. The franchise hasn’t had a playoff birth in nine years - their youth and talent provides them with reason to consider sooner rather than later.

Still, if the Mets do manage to win the division crown or somehow earn a Wild Card spot, they only have a marginal chance at getting out of the divisional round, and it’s hard to imagine them hanging with the Cardinals unless deGrom or Harvey is on the mound and the offense is producing. (Which is hard against St. Louis.)

That being said, however, the 2016 season looks promising, although it’s difficult to look ahead that far and remain accurate with predictions. The young pieces of the rotation - Harvey, deGrom, Thor and Matz - will be back, and Zack Wheeler, the Mets’ touted pitching prospect who impressed during his first two seasons, will be back by June or July. If Duda, d’Arnaud, Herrera and Lagares build on their 2015 seasons and the Mets make some acquisitions, they could be in position for a shot at the title. But all of this is relative - the Mets still have the rest of this season to worry about.